Open Instagram any day in November and it's wall-to-wall. 30% off. 40% off. Everything must go. And the brands running those sales look like they're absolutely swimming in cash.
If you're a small brand, it's really easy to sit there and think, "If I don't do this, I'm going to get left behind."
So let me say this upfront: you won't get left behind.
In 2025, I had two clients pull out of Black Friday completely. A dog toy brand and a baby food brand and despite this, both of them had record sales years.
Black Friday is sold to small businesses as a must-do, and for a lot of you, it isn't. So let's look at what's actually going on, and how to work out what's right for your brand.
The pressure: how big Black Friday is now
I get why it feels like you have to be in it, the numbers are huge.
Australians spent $23.8 billion over the two-week Black Friday period in 2025. That's nearly 20% more than a normal fortnight. The Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend alone was tipped to hit $6.8 billion.
But here's the bit that doesn't get talked about. Xero surveyed 500 Australian small businesses in 2025.
So the event keeps getting bigger, and the businesses most like yours are quietly stepping back.
The honest case for running a Black Friday sale
Cash flow. The six-week stretch from Black Friday to Christmas is when the ARA says discretionary retailers can make up to two-thirds of their annual profit. If January and February are always slow for you, a strong November can fund your stock orders and ad spend for the start of the year.
New customers. Over the 2025 Black Friday weekend, first-time buyers made up nearly 69% of email orders in Australia. People are out shopping, and they're open to trying new brands.
People are ready to buy. This is where my Meta brain kicks in. One dataset of Meta advertisers found conversion rates jumped about 48% in Black Friday week. Shoppers are in buying mode and they're waiting to buy.
Clearing old stock. If you've got last season's colours sitting in the warehouse tying up cash, Black Friday is a sensible time to move them.
So if your margins can handle it, you've got stock to clear, you can actually ship the orders, and you've got a plan for keeping those customers, it can absolutely work.
Just remember revenue isn't cash. One Australian founder described hitting massive November numbers on a 40% storewide sale, then barely breaking even once the January supplier and freight bills landed.
Why it's so much harder for small brands
Now here's the reality for most of the brands I work with.
If you can only afford 10% off, you're standing next to big brands offering 30 to 40% off; your offer just isn't going to cut through.
And you're not only competing on the offer, but you're also competing with their ad budgets.
This is what's actually happening inside Meta over that period. Every brand floods the auction at the same time, so it costs a lot more just to get your ad seen.
In 2025, Meta CPMs (what you pay for every 1,000 people who see your ad) were running about 57% higher during Black Friday week than in October.
On Black Friday itself, one dataset had the median brand paying 84% more than in September. And it starts creeping up from around 10 November.
That doesn't mean you have to stop spending. It just means you need to go in knowing it'll cost more to get a sale, and budget for it.
The hidden cost: who you're actually acquiring
This is the part I wish more founders knew.
Black Friday does bring in new customers. The problem is most of them never come back.
Ometria looked at retailers' Black Friday 2024 customers and found only 4% bought again within 12 months. They were six times less likely to return than a normal new customer.
It's not just one study either. 64% of retailers say customers they pick up over Black Friday are worth less over time than customers they find at any other point in the year.
So basically, you're paying more to reach people, giving away margin, and the customers you win are the least likely to buy from you again.
Then there's the other side: your existing customers. My baby food client found exactly this. When they looked at who was using the discount, it was mostly people who were already going to buy from them anyway.
It didn't bring in new customers; it just gave their loyal ones money off something they'd have paid full price for.
And once you've done it, you've trained people to wait. Merry People, the Melbourne gumboot brand, has never gone on sale for exactly this reason.
Their founder worried people would just wait for the next sale.
The bigger cost
I'll be honest, this is the part that gets under my skin.
Black Friday makes it feel normal to buy a heap of stuff we don't need.
Australians already buy 56 new pieces of clothing each a year, more than anywhere else in the world, and more than 200,000 tonnes of clothing ends up in landfill here every year.
UK research found up to 80% of household plastics and textiles end up in landfill, incinerated or poorly recycled once they're thrown out, often after a very short life.
And often the "deals" aren't even deals. When UK consumer group Which? tracked over 200 Black Friday offers, 98% were the same price or cheaper at some point in the following six months.
The brands that said no (and are doing just fine)
If you're worried about being the only one sitting it out, you're in good company. Plenty of Australian brands have stepped away from Black Friday, and some of them have the numbers to show it hasn't hurt.
Slappas Thongs swapped their 2025 Black Friday discount for a price rise campaign. Yep, they put their prices up. It brought in nearly $10k in website sales over four days, and since dropping discounts they've reported a higher average order value, lower costs and a big lift in annual profit.
Merry People has never discounted since launching in 2014, and they tell customers why. They've found sales actually lift when they share their no-sale policy, and without big sale spikes, their forecasting is much easier (SmartCompany).
Twoobs doesn't do Black Friday, or sales at all. They offer their best price all year round instead, and their founders say sales continue to exceed expectations. Their thinking is that people who buy at full price value what they've bought, and become your biggest fans.
And overseas, Patagonia famously ran a full-page ad on Black Friday 2011 telling people "Don't Buy This Jacket". Their sales still grew around 30% the following year. Lucy & Yak in the UK skip the discounts and donate their Black Friday profits to a charity educating girls in India.
What happened when two of my clients skipped it
Remember the two clients I mentioned at the start? Neither ran a Black Friday sale in 2025.
Skipping Black Friday isn't why they grew, but it definitely didn't hold them back. They didn't get left behind.
If you're skipping it: add value instead
Not running a sale doesn't mean doing nothing. If you don't want to discount, focus on adding value instead. A few ideas:
A gift with purchase. Something small that genuinely adds to the order. To'ak, a premium chocolate brand, gives subscribers complimentary tasting kits instead of a discount.
Free shipping for your email subscribers only over that period. It rewards the people already on your list, and they're the customers who actually come back.
Make buying easier. Myer extends its returns window so November and December purchases can come back until the end of January. Australian fashion label Morrison leans on premium packaging, styling advice and free shipping rather than heavy discounting.
The maths is on your side too. A discount comes off the price of every single order. A gift only costs you what the gift costs you. One UK beauty brand swapped heavy discounting for free gifts and saw orders dip by 6%, but its net profit went from £224 to £8,148.
One honest note: when shoppers are asked, more of them still say they prefer a straight discount. So value-adds work best for your existing customers and email list, not as a hook for cold traffic.
So, should you run a Black Friday sale?
Honestly? It depends on your margins, your stock, your capacity and your customers. Not on what everyone else in your feed is doing.
| Check | A sale could work if | Think twice if |
|---|---|---|
| Margins | Your margins can handle the discount | A discount would eat most of your profit |
| Stock | You've got stock to clear | You'd only be discounting stock that sells at full price |
| Capacity | You can actually ship the orders | A spike in orders would swamp you |
| Customers | You've got a plan for keeping new customers | Most buyers would have paid full price anyway |
| Ad budget | You've budgeted for higher Meta costs | Your budget can't stretch to 57% higher CPMs |
If you run one, plan it properly and go in with your eyes open and if you don't, you're not missing out.
Black Friday FAQs
Do small businesses need to run a Black Friday sale?
No. It can work if you've got strong margins, stock to clear and the capacity to ship everything on time. But plenty of Australian brands skip it and still grow. Two of my clients pulled out in 2025 and both had record sales years.
Will I lose sales if I don't do Black Friday?
Not necessarily. Many Black Friday discounts go to customers who were already going to buy from you at full price. If you skip it, focus on adding value instead, like a gift with purchase or free shipping for your email subscribers.
How much more do Meta ads cost over Black Friday?
A lot more. In 2025, Meta CPMs ran about 57% higher in Black Friday week than in October, and costs start climbing from around 10 November. Big brands with 30 to 40% off can make that work. Small brands with a smaller offer usually pay more for each sale.
Do Black Friday customers come back?
Mostly, no. One study found only 4% of Black Friday 2024 customers bought again within 12 months. If you do run a sale, plan a January email follow-up to welcome them and give them a reason to come back.
What can I do instead of a Black Friday discount?
Try a gift with purchase, free shipping for subscribers only, a longer returns window, or early access for your email list. Some brands close their online store for the weekend or donate their profits instead.
When should I start planning for Black Friday?
Two to three months out. Start growing your email list now, because it'll be your biggest return on investment whether you run a sale or not. Never throw a sale up three days before and hope for the best.